Robert K. Merton listed six possible causes of unanticipated consequences: 1) Ignorance, 2) Error in analysis, 3) Immediate interests, 4) Basic values, 5) Self-defeating prophecy, 6) Relevance
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Friday, July 9, 2010
Let Goldman Be Goldman
Cliff's Notes to Goldman's Playbook: 1) Wait for Fed to raise rates (money is FREE right now after all!), 2) Give back bank holding company, 3) Go private, 4) Give middle finger to Washington.
World economic recovery driven by global imbalances
Key paragraph: Total household debt has fallen 2.7 percent, or $374 billion, since peaking in the second quarter of 2008. But, as the Wall Street Journal recently noted, U.S. banks and lenders have written off almost exactly the same amount of loans as unrecoverable. That means, on balance, that Americans are not paying down what they owe in any meaningful way.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
5 Questionable Arguments Against the Double-Dip
I think the odds are actually better than 50/50... one more shock puts us over the edge.
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