Below is a more detailed description of Merton's list of possible causes of Unanticipated Consequences:
- Ignorance: It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis
- Error: Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past, but may not apply to the current situation
- Immediate Interests: Focusing on the near-term may override or ignore long-term interests
- Basic Values: Certain actions may be required (or prohibited) based on current laws/values/morals even if the long-term result might be unfavorable. Corollary: Long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in Basic Values.
- Self-defeating Prophecy: Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs. Thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated.
- Relevance Paradox: Decision makers, thinking they know their areas of ignorance, obtain the necessary information to fill that ignorance gap, but neglect certain other areas of ignorance because, due to not having the information, its relevance is not obvious.
Source: Merton, Robert K. On Social Structure and Science. The University of Chicago Press, 1996.
